"Published January 13, in IOP Publishing's journal Environmental Research Letters, this new research suggests that the trend of increasingly cold winters over the past two decades could be explained by warmer temperatures in the autumn having a marked effect on normal weather patterns, causing temperatures to plummet in the following winter.
Their results showed strong warming throughout July, August and September in the Arctic, which continued through the autumn and, according to their observational data, appeared to enhance the melting of sea ice."
(Not a scientist, just a lay person but "appeared" to endance ice melt? Hello? Imo, duh.)
"This warmer atmosphere, combined with melting sea ice, allows the Arctic atmosphere to hold more moisture and increases the likelihood of precipitation over more southern areas such as Eurasia, which, in the freezing temperatures, would fall as snow. Indeed, the researchers' observations showed that the average snow coverage in Eurasia has increased over the past two decades."
http://www.scienceda...20112193430.htm
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Hotter summers=colder winters.
Started by Shortpoet-GTD, Jan 13 2012 05:30 PM
45 replies to this topic
#2
Posted 13 January 2012 - 06:04 PM
Interesting.
That there can be more snow is no surprise, more heat moves more moisture around which can result in more rain or, if it's cold enough, more snow.
Locally getting colder because local snow reflects more sunlight, makes sense.
It's complicated.
That there can be more snow is no surprise, more heat moves more moisture around which can result in more rain or, if it's cold enough, more snow.
Locally getting colder because local snow reflects more sunlight, makes sense.
It's complicated.
#4
Posted 14 January 2012 - 07:55 PM
Not that surprising--I don't mean that in a stuck-up way, just that if you look at places like Texas, the extremes in summer and winter are widening, so I wouldn't be surprised that it's becoming a global pattern. I used to live in Central Texas, and while it would get hot in the summer and cold enough in the winter for 1-2 mini ice storms (and occasionally very light snowfall once every 3 years or so), now the summers are notoriously hot and the winters see more snow. This isn't always the pattern in Texas, but over the past few years, that's what seems to be happening.
#5
Posted 14 January 2012 - 08:23 PM
Makes sense. And they do have to say "appeared" because it is science, after all. A lot of research goes into a simple statement and things are never set in stone. There's an awful lot of really bad science reporting in newspapers and online that would make scientists cautious too about making statements. Anyway, I think we're in for a long haul of weather weirdness and it seems unlikely we'll settle down into any predictable pattern any time soon.
#6
Posted 15 January 2012 - 11:37 PM
And we already felt it in the past ten years. Rains bring more water as it takes only one day's of it to pour heavily that was intended for a months rain do. And the summers are getting all time high in the thermometer scale. More people are dying out of extreme coldness and even more people died on flash floods as a result of heavy rains. The El Nino and El Nina phenomenon are getting worst each year with more drought and flooding.
#7
Posted 17 January 2012 - 08:31 AM
There is no winter here but we could still observe the big changes in weather. Just like the hotter summer and the stronger the storms had become. The more destructive natural disasters had become and how it was affecting a lot too much. The weather in a day become strange like can be hot and then raining and then be hot again. For the years I had lived on earth, there were bad changes already that can be really felt and observed.
#8
Posted 27 January 2012 - 12:26 PM
What about us that live in Arizona? I mean we get really hot summers here but the winters aren't that bad. We don't even get snow where I live. The places that do get snow don't have summers compared to here where the temp can get over 110 degrees!
#9
Posted 27 January 2012 - 03:18 PM
brihooter, on 27 January 2012 - 12:26 PM, said:
What about us that live in Arizona? I mean we get really hot summers here but the winters aren't that bad. We don't even get snow where I live. The places that do get snow don't have summers compared to here where the temp can get over 110 degrees!
Like all the floods we had last year, and Texas suffered through the drought? One state, or area-rain, another
flood, two states over fires, excessive snow fall.
#11 Guest_arboramans_*
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Posted 30 January 2012 - 04:17 PM
The first mistake the layman makes is to consider any particular year as an anomoly. Climate is the average over 60 years, so you can have two or three years of hotter or colder, doesn't mean anything. Global Warmists make the mistake of beleiveing that C02 is like a blanket and taht it will gradually over time retain more and more heat - in fact what it does is just cause the daily cycle to accelerate - the earth still loses the heat gain at night (unless there's cloud cover). The ERBE showed this quite empahtically.
And yes have to agree on that last note - 95% of bushfires in Australia are lit by Arsonists. And it's amazing how many fireman are secretly arsonists - they are pyromaniacs - which is why they become fireman.
And yes have to agree on that last note - 95% of bushfires in Australia are lit by Arsonists. And it's amazing how many fireman are secretly arsonists - they are pyromaniacs - which is why they become fireman.
#12 Guest_arboramans_*
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Posted 30 January 2012 - 04:17 PM
"FREEZING weather has killed dozens of people in central and eastern Europe over the past few days.
And temperatures are set to drop even further, authorities warned yesterday.
In Poland, police said 10 died over the weekend as temperatures plunged to -27C, raising the death toll from exposure to 46 since the start of the winter, which had been unusually mild up to now.
Ukraine's health ministry said 18 people have died of hypothermia in the last four days. Most of them were homeless who froze to death in the streets or old people who died in their flats or after hospitalisation.
Nearly 500 people sought medical help for frostbite and hypothermia in just three days last week, the emergency situations ministry said. Authorities have opened 1500 shelters to provide food and heat, as temperatures plunge to 30 degrees below zero Celsius in some regions of the country"
And temperatures are set to drop even further, authorities warned yesterday.
In Poland, police said 10 died over the weekend as temperatures plunged to -27C, raising the death toll from exposure to 46 since the start of the winter, which had been unusually mild up to now.
Ukraine's health ministry said 18 people have died of hypothermia in the last four days. Most of them were homeless who froze to death in the streets or old people who died in their flats or after hospitalisation.
Nearly 500 people sought medical help for frostbite and hypothermia in just three days last week, the emergency situations ministry said. Authorities have opened 1500 shelters to provide food and heat, as temperatures plunge to 30 degrees below zero Celsius in some regions of the country"
#13
Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:49 AM
arboramans, on 30 January 2012 - 04:17 PM, said:
The first mistake the layman makes is to consider any particular year as an anomoly. Climate is the average over 60 years, so you can have two or three years of hotter or colder, doesn't mean anything. Global Warmists make the mistake of beleiveing that C02 is like a blanket and taht it will gradually over time retain more and more heat - in fact what it does is just cause the daily cycle to accelerate - the earth still loses the heat gain at night (unless there's cloud cover). The ERBE showed this quite empahtically.
And yes have to agree on that last note - 95% of bushfires in Australia are lit by Arsonists. And it's amazing how many fireman are secretly arsonists - they are pyromaniacs - which is why they become fireman.
And yes have to agree on that last note - 95% of bushfires in Australia are lit by Arsonists. And it's amazing how many fireman are secretly arsonists - they are pyromaniacs - which is why they become fireman.
Lets see...
Anomaly...according to the dictionary, an anomaly is something out of the ordinary. http://dictionary.re.../browse/Anomaly
Are you saying that an unusually warm year isn't an anomaly?
Regarding climate not being a short term thing, that's right. The climate has gotten a little warmer, long term. Look at figure 2 here: http://www.columbia....Temperature.pdf
It's not a lot so far but the change is accelerating.
I'm a "global warmist."
The mechanism of a blanket warming you in bed isn't the same as CO2 warming the Earth, but they do both warm. An actual blanket works by limiting heat transfer via convection and conduction while CO2 slows radiative heat transfer from the Earth to space. Increasing CO2 does increase the slowing, leading to increased temperature.
I don't understand your meaning here:"in fact what it does is just cause the daily cycle to accelerate, " care to explain?
I'm unaware of this too:" The ERBE showed this quite empahtically." Care to elaborate, maybe provide a link?
I'd very much like to be convinced that human caused climate change is nothing to be concerned about.
Climate change is complicated, but there are four basic facts that should lead to concern:
1 There is an atmospheric greenhouse effect.
2 Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas.
3 Fossil fuel combustion necessarily produces carbon dioxide,
4 The level of atmospheric carbon dioxide is increasing.
There are lots of complicating effects and those four facts by themselves don't show that there actually is human caused climate change/global warming. The actual measurements show that there has been global warming recently. Theory says that there will be a lot more global warming with business-as-usual fossil fuel use.
I don't know about Australian bushfires.
#14
Posted 31 January 2012 - 03:11 AM
"Global warming is producing warmer autumns that cause colder winters.
People obviously find that difficult to understand.
Eastern US, southern Canada and northern Eurasia have had winters that can't be easily explained as natural variability.
In the Arctic, strong warming throughout July, August and September melted more sea ice than was previously lost in this way.
The humidity of the Arctic atmosphere increased with this, and caused precipitation over Eurasia.
This fell as snow because of the freezing temperatures of the early winter.
The effects of snow cover are intricately woven into the "Arctic Oscillation" (this is a pressure pattern in the mid to high latitudes). Basically, a negative effect arose, in which high pressure becomes dominant over the Arctic, pushing cold air south.
With Jason C. Furtado and Vladimir A. Alexeev , Mathew A Harlow and Jessica E. Cherry he has produced
evidence to confound the doubters who assume global warming can't account for colder winter weather.
Climate models have consistently failed to predict this snow because apparently they don't take account
of snow-cover variability."
(Full article here:)
http://www.earthtime...-december/1762/
People obviously find that difficult to understand.
Eastern US, southern Canada and northern Eurasia have had winters that can't be easily explained as natural variability.
In the Arctic, strong warming throughout July, August and September melted more sea ice than was previously lost in this way.
The humidity of the Arctic atmosphere increased with this, and caused precipitation over Eurasia.
This fell as snow because of the freezing temperatures of the early winter.
The effects of snow cover are intricately woven into the "Arctic Oscillation" (this is a pressure pattern in the mid to high latitudes). Basically, a negative effect arose, in which high pressure becomes dominant over the Arctic, pushing cold air south.
With Jason C. Furtado and Vladimir A. Alexeev , Mathew A Harlow and Jessica E. Cherry he has produced
evidence to confound the doubters who assume global warming can't account for colder winter weather.
Climate models have consistently failed to predict this snow because apparently they don't take account
of snow-cover variability."
(Full article here:)
http://www.earthtime...-december/1762/
#15
Posted 31 January 2012 - 04:15 AM
Colder winters indeed. Death toll rising in Europe from extreme cold.
http://www.huffingto...europe-weather/
http://www.huffingto...europe-weather/
#16
Posted 31 January 2012 - 10:18 AM
arboramans, on 30 January 2012 - 04:17 PM, said:
"FREEZING weather has killed dozens of people in central and eastern Europe over the past few days.
And temperatures are set to drop even further, authorities warned yesterday.
In Poland, police said 10 died over the weekend as temperatures plunged to -27C, raising the death toll from exposure to 46 since the start of the winter, which had been unusually mild up to now.
Ukraine's health ministry said 18 people have died of hypothermia in the last four days. Most of them were homeless who froze to death in the streets or old people who died in their flats or after hospitalisation.
Nearly 500 people sought medical help for frostbite and hypothermia in just three days last week, the emergency situations ministry said. Authorities have opened 1500 shelters to provide food and heat, as temperatures plunge to 30 degrees below zero Celsius in some regions of the country"
And temperatures are set to drop even further, authorities warned yesterday.
In Poland, police said 10 died over the weekend as temperatures plunged to -27C, raising the death toll from exposure to 46 since the start of the winter, which had been unusually mild up to now.
Ukraine's health ministry said 18 people have died of hypothermia in the last four days. Most of them were homeless who froze to death in the streets or old people who died in their flats or after hospitalisation.
Nearly 500 people sought medical help for frostbite and hypothermia in just three days last week, the emergency situations ministry said. Authorities have opened 1500 shelters to provide food and heat, as temperatures plunge to 30 degrees below zero Celsius in some regions of the country"
That is so horrible! I am glad that they opened up some shelters to help people though. I can't even imagine going through that. My heart goes out to everyone there!
#17
Posted 01 February 2012 - 04:24 PM
That actually makes some sense to me, as far as what they have to say.
If there is a time of severe heat then most likely it will be the opposite when it gets to the winter months and have a very cold winter. If not then I just do not see how it could work any other way. Maybe it does not make sense to others but it just seems like a though out idea that I could agree with.
Watch, it will be completely false! LOL
If there is a time of severe heat then most likely it will be the opposite when it gets to the winter months and have a very cold winter. If not then I just do not see how it could work any other way. Maybe it does not make sense to others but it just seems like a though out idea that I could agree with.
Watch, it will be completely false! LOL
#19
Posted 02 February 2012 - 04:20 AM
artistry, on 01 February 2012 - 05:08 PM, said:
Global weirdness indeed. Here in New Jersey, we have had many 60 degree days, at the end of January. What happens this summer should be very interesting, to say the least..
Shop 2nd hand store for
hats with large brims
bandanna's for capturing sweat,
umbrella's.
Possible new purchase-
sunglasses with UVA-UVB protection
black out shades for the car
(I would say sunscreen, but there are too many chemicals in them to trust putting that on our skin-organic brands
instead.)
counter-top water filter so you can stay hydrated,
install some kind of rain water capture system,
plant trees for shade,
and most important-vote.
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