61 replies to this topic

[Dustoffer]

"we are 60 years ahead of the worst case scenario" is a telling statement, and applies to more than ice-melt.........

[Shortpoet-GTD]

Dustoffer, on 25 March 2014 - 09:13 AM, said:

"we are 60 years ahead of the worst case scenario" is a telling statement, and applies to more than ice-melt.........

I read, years ago, that we were 10 years past Earth's tipping point.....................and emissions have only increased.

[Dustoffer]

We could be 10 years past or ten years from, depending on momentum, or what of the four tipping points you are referring to.
I gather the open ocean positive feedback loop tipping point is passed.   Then the tipping point for the Arctic tundra methane positive feedback loop that was just starting in 2009, is reported to be 2023 to stop 90% of all HGHGs, or it will continue to the next tipping point.
That of oceanic methane deposits explosively releasing in a positive feedback loop going down to the deepest deposits.  This is followed by another tipping point of heat buildup driving out the sequestered CO2 in the acid oceans and on land.   This point is thermal maximum.  The entire process is called methane turnover, and is a natural process set in motion by the GHGs of massive long term human overpopulation, this time, and longer periods of increased vulcanism, in the past(PETM).
The rate of heat buildup and CO2 added to the atmosphere is 10 to 40 times faster right now than PETM, and the methane hasn't really begun to go geometric in the quantities it will in the relatively near future.  This high rate of change means less time for life forms to adapt (~500 years), and a very long resequestration time(~>200K yrs.).
So, there is a connection and sequence to these tipping points.  The main one that does the worst is the Arctic Tundra methane self release.  It is only a 50/50 crap shoot that the 90% HGHG reduction by 2023 will work to stop AETM and finish one of the worst ELEs in geologic history.  Before the 350.org report, we had Hansen telling us we had a decade to reduce fossil fuel use 90% (apparently without stopping most slash and burn) in 2006.   Then those who think it is already too late.  I prefer to hope for that 90% HGHG reduction by 2023 being able to stop the process over a 400 year period, with only a short delay of the ice age.

[Shortpoet-GTD]

We are the fat man-the Earth is the scale-tipping point.



 scale.jpg   110.91K   1 downloads

[MattBnB]

This is terrifying. We are going to need to engineer a solution to this ASAP.

[Besoeker]

MattBnB, on 23 July 2014 - 07:17 AM, said:

This is terrifying. We are going to need to engineer a solution to this ASAP.

Yo da man!!!

[Shortpoet-GTD]

Hollywood's on the ball about it.
Their newest offering; The Last Ship talks about a highly contagious virus being released because of the
melting permafrost.
Dramatic but it helps bring awareness to the morons that idolize fads (like game and talent shows)

And then there's this- (hold onto something sturdy) I hope they mention coal in the movie.........

[Dustoffer]

I think the strongest likelihood is the volcanic winters, seemingly natural, from purposely blowing Yellowstone by a pattern blast of nukes drilled to just below the magma chamber.  I think 10MGT devices every ten miles or so, around 150, should effect the eruption.
At least a Toba like event would stop CAGW to the Venus Effect.  It is the only way out that saves most species and the biosphere itself.
No other technical gimmicks are likely to stop the massive forces of the Anthropocene.
Some places will have riots and loss of civil control as die off progresses with starvation and fighting for food.  Some may have destructive weather besides the 10 year winter.   Most will be dead within 6 months and others after two years or so.  Those in underground stocked and equipped fortresses could make it until after the winters are over and life comes back to repair ecosystems.
If it does not work, then increasing heat will lead to intense storms and wild fires.  The food and water shortages will lead to riots and even warfare, along with gangs of armed thugs who eat people and everything they have for food.  The human population will crash, but the heat keeps coming, until all the forests are burned and the oceans boiled away with a cloudy CO2 and water vapor atmosphere at 400*F or more.  Not even aliens would visit to see our geologic history.

[Shortpoet-GTD]

Too close for comfort and
screaming
as an iceberg breaks off. (video)
Via Mother Jones-

http://www.motherjon...-climate-change

[Shortpoet-GTD]

This may have been posted elsewhere; if not, it's an eye opener.

Melting permafrost in Siberia has caused crater's to form. The methane release is substantial.

"A study from earlier this year found that melting permafrost soil, which typically remains frozen all year,
is thawing and decomposing at an accelerating rate.
This is releasing more methane into the atmosphere, causing the greenhouse effect to increase global temperatures
and creating a positive feedback loop in which more permafrost melts."

Via Think Progress-
http://thinkprogress...climate-change/

[Dustoffer]

Well, just to prove the beginnings of hard acceleration, there should be more and more of these methane burps in time to come.
The large methane releases are getting close to equaling HGHGs, after which it will be in runaway.

[Shortpoet-GTD]

A new report, based on satellite data says that Greenland and Antarctica are melting at a faster rate
than previously thought and that their melt is contributing to sea level rise
twice
as much as they were just 5 years ago.

From Huffington Post/green-

http://www.huffingto...tm_hp_ref=green
"When we compare the current data with those from the ICESat satellite from the year 2009,
the volume loss in Greenland has doubled since then.
The loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has in the same time span increased by a factor of three."

The report-(pdf file)
http://www.the-cryos...8-1539-2014.pdf

[Shortpoet-GTD]

The effects of the shrinking sea ice were clearly visible recently when 35,000+ walruses came ashore
in Alaska because their usual ice spots for resting are gone. They cannot swim continuously like seals;
they need a place to rest.

"It's another remarkable sign of the dramatic environmental conditions changing as the result of sea ice loss," said Margaret Williams, managing director of the group's Arctic program."
Via Huffington Post/green-
http://www.huffingto...tm_hp_ref=green

[Shortpoet-GTD]

Gravitational pull changing because of ice loss? WT...............?

Via the Daily Beast-
http://www.thedailyb...campaign=buffer

[Shortpoet-GTD]

They used to say slow but sure about rising sea levels.
Now? Not so much.
Studies show a 5" rise; (in one event)
Via Grist-
http://grist.org/cli...to-worry-about/

[Shortpoet-GTD]

Maybe "shrinking" (sea ice) isn't the best word. It implies smaller sure; but the term also implies it's a
small problem; nothing to worry about. Slow but sure; but no biggie.

In reality; it's a large, dire situation.
More massive chunks are falling (or will fall very soon) into our oceans.
(Senator inhofe; are you listening? Or are you too busy throwing snow balls on the Senate floor claiming
climate change is a hoax?)
http://ecowatch.com/...climate-change/


Ice breaking away article
Via Grist-
http://grist.org/new...dy-to-drown-us/

[Shortpoet-GTD]

Earthquakes are shifting ice more quickly now; causing more melting.
Via Washington Post (information from numerous studies from Universities)
http://www.washingto..._business_pop_b

[E3 wise]

For me one of the scariest things is ow scientist keep saying that they have underestimated the loss of sea ice.  Over and over again studies have found unanticipated feedback loops and issues they had not considered initially that are making the situation worse as time goes on.  How long till another story of Antarctica or Greenland losing areas the size of a state like Arizona suddenly disappearing.

[Shortpoet-GTD]

E3 wise, on 27 June 2015 - 07:46 AM, said:

How long till another story of Antarctica or Greenland losing areas the size of a state like Arizona suddenly disappearing.

Set your stopwatch; it'll be soon.

[Shortpoet-GTD]

Storms are causing more melting ice which leads to more methane release.
Feedback loop; methane warms, more ice melt, more methane warms, more ice melt.............

http://arctic-news.b...ctic-ocean.html

http://methane-hydra...e-hydrates.html

http://clathrates.bl...lease-from.html